In June, the export volume of chemical products will explode, and the price difference will exceed 15000 yuan / ton!

Affected by the war between Russia and Ukraine, the global energy supply is tight, the prices of natural gas and other energy have risen several times, the industrial production costs have risen sharply, the price gap between China and the European Union, the United States and other chemical products has widened, and the export volume of China's chemical products has gradually increased.

 

 

On June 9, the General Administration of Customs released statistical data, which showed that China's total import and export value in May was 537.74 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.1%. Among them, the export reached US $308.25 billion, an increase of 16.9%.

 

From the perspective of major countries and regions, the year-on-year growth rate of exports to the United States, the European Union and ASEAN rose to 15.7%, 20.3% and 25.9% respectively due to the low base effect in the same period last year.

 

 

 

Focusing on the chemical industry, the data show that in the first quarter, the total import and export volume, import and export volume of the petrochemical industry increased by more than 20% simultaneously, with a year-on-year increase of 25.8% and 23.7% respectively.

 

With the rise of "out of the sea tide", many chemicals have welcomed opportunities. At present, the price difference between China and Europe for adipic acid has reached 15000 yuan / ton.

So what is the export trend next? Which chemical products are more conducive to export?

 

 

Exports increased by 16.9% year-on-year in May and continued to strengthen in June

 

Wang Qing, chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that the import and export growth rebounded sharply in May, mainly because the impact of the epidemic was alleviated, the resumption of work and production was promoted, the foreign trade logistics blockage was gradually opened, and the growth of import and export freight volume was accelerated.

 

According to the data, the foreign trade container throughput of the eight hub ports in May increased by 7.3% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 1.9% of the previous month, which became the main reason for boosting the import and export growth in May.

 

 

The continuous decline of sea freight is one of the key factors to help increase the export volume. As of June 3, the Baltic Sea Freight Index (FBX) was 7412.16 points, down 5.59% from last week, basically falling back to the level in July 2021.

 

 

More importantly, at present, the United States, Europe and other major export destinations in China are experiencing high inflation, and the prices of China's export commodities will also tend to rise. Price factors support exports and promote the export willingness of domestic enterprises.

 

The staff of an international logistics company in Guangzhou told youliaojun that overall, the export situation in May was better than that in April, and the order volume increased by about one time.

 

This change is directly reflected in the port inventory data. For example, pure benzene, according to the statistics of zhuochuang information, the trade volume inventory of East China pure benzene port was 58700 tons on June 1, 2022, a decrease of 12100 tons compared with May 25, a month on month decrease of 17.09% and a year-on-year decrease of 33.67%.

 

 

Data source: zhuochuang information

 

At present, in order to stabilize the import and export trade, the State Council Office recently issued the opinions on promoting the stability and quality improvement of foreign trade, which pointed out that we should make every effort to ensure the smooth flow of freight logistics, and effectively and orderly dredge the collection and distribution of sea and air ports.

 

The General Administration of Customs has also issued 10 measures to promote the stability and quality of foreign trade, speed up the customs clearance of goods urgently needed by enterprises, and improve the efficiency of inbound and outbound logistics. Li Kuiwen, director of the statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of customs, said that in the first five months, the number of foreign trade enterprises with import and export performance in China increased by 5% year-on-year.

 

Under the background that the policy of stabilizing foreign trade continues to increase, and the efficiency of port transshipment and customs clearance is improved, Guohai Securities believes that the domestic economic stabilization measures are gradually strengthened, and domestic demand is expected to recover. Under the background of China EU high price difference, China's chemical exports will increase significantly, superimposed on the decline of sea freight prices.

 

Dongfang Jincheng believes that with the further repair of logistics, the delivery of backlog orders in the early stage, and the continued increase in the efforts to stabilize foreign trade policies, the growth rate of export volume in June may continue to be at a high level of double digits.

 

 

The price difference at home and abroad exceeds 15000 yuan / ton. Which varieties are more conducive to export?

 

According to customs data, China's chemical products with significant export growth in April include adipic acid, toluene, PS, PVC, styrene, soda ash, acetic acid, acrylonitrile, HDPE, LLDPE, PTA, liquid alkali, etc.

 

As of June 5, the products on the price difference list of China EU chemicals include epoxy resin, adipic acid (2307.5 dollars / ton), PA66 (injection molding) (1706.4 dollars / ton), caprolactam (1531.7 dollars / ton), PA6 (injection molding) (1508.7 dollars / ton), TDI (1439.0 dollars / ton), MDI (878 dollars / ton), etc.

 

CITIC Securities believes that at this stage, chemical products with high overseas share and relatively cost sensitive, such as PVC, mdi\tdi and caustic soda, are more competitive in the global market.

Among them, MDI capacity is mainly distributed in Asia, Europe and America, while Asian capacity accounts for 56.6% of the global capacity. Since the beginning of this year, affected by geopolitics, the prices of natural gas and other energy sources in Europe have been high, the prices of aggregated MDI in Europe have been rising all the way, and the price gap between China and Europe has been widening. In May, 2022, the price difference between Europe and the United States of MDI reached US $1016.45/t, which was in the historical 89.9% quantile.

 

Due to the high overseas prices of aggregated MDI, domestic prices also rose. According to the data of zhuochuang information, the price of aggregated MDI has risen for 4 consecutive days. On June 10, the average price of aggregated MDI in the national mainstream market was 18050 yuan / ton.

 

Data source: zhuochuang information

 

Guohai Securities believes that the shortage of energy and high costs may lead to the passive load reduction of local chemical plants, resulting in a large gap in the supply of chemicals, further promoting the sharp rise in the prices of local products in Europe. China's MDI exports to Europe are expected to increase, and domestic MDI production capacity may benefit.

 

In addition, the European market price of chemicals represented by caustic soda has more than doubled that of China, which is also worthy of traders' attention. According to wind data, the current price difference between China and Europe exceeds 1600 yuan / ton.

 

Since this year, the export volume of caustic soda has been increasing. According to the customs data, from January to April 2022, China's total export volume of caustic soda was 942000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 155%. Among them, the export of liquid caustic soda was 768000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 237%, and the export of solid caustic soda was 174000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24%.

 

At present, the units of caustic soda manufacturers have been started stably, there is no inventory pressure for the time being, the maintenance units have also gradually resumed production, and the supply of goods has increased.

 

According to the analysts of youliao.com, the inventory of caustic soda in a short period of time is relatively tight and the export side is good. The enthusiasm of traders to purchase is relatively strong. The short-term caustic soda market is supported by the supply side, and the overall market is optimistic. However, due to the high downstream cost in China, or it is difficult for the price of caustic soda to increase again, it is expected that the price of caustic soda will remain stable or decline in the short term.

 

PVC is also one of the export competitive products. According to wind data statistics, the current price difference between China and Europe for PVC is 5319 yuan / ton.

 

Since 2021, the export volume of PVC has increased significantly. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, the export volume of PVC in April this year exceeded 300000 tons, a significant increase over the beginning of this year.

 

In general, this year, on the one hand, the price difference has been further widened, on the other hand, the sea freight has declined, and the resumption of domestic production and work will also solve the transportation problem of the supply chain. In the second half of the year, the export of chemicals may have a stronger performance, and traders deserve more attention.

 

~Affected by the war between Russia and Ukraine, the global energy supply is tight, the prices of natural gas and other energy have risen several times, the industrial production costs have risen sharply, the price gap between China and the European Union, the United States and other chemical products has widened, and the export volume of China's chemical products has gradually increased.

 

On June 9, the General Administration of Customs released statistical data, which showed that China's total import and export value in May was 537.74 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.1%. Among them, the export reached US $308.25 billion, an increase of 16.9%.

 

From the perspective of major countries and regions, the year-on-year growth rate of exports to the United States, the European Union and ASEAN rose to 15.7%, 20.3% and 25.9% respectively due to the low base effect in the same period last year.

 

Focusing on the chemical industry, the data show that in the first quarter, the total import and export volume, import and export volume of the petrochemical industry increased by more than 20% simultaneously, with a year-on-year increase of 25.8% and 23.7% respectively.

 

With the rise of "out of the sea tide", many chemicals have welcomed opportunities. At present, the price difference between China and Europe for adipic acid has reached 15000 yuan / ton.

So what is the export trend next? Which chemical products are more conducive to export?

 

Exports increased by 16.9% year-on-year in May and continued to strengthen in June

 

Wang Qing, chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that the import and export growth rebounded sharply in May, mainly because the impact of the epidemic was alleviated, the resumption of work and production was promoted, the foreign trade logistics blockage was gradually opened, and the growth of import and export freight volume was accelerated.

 

According to the data, the foreign trade container throughput of the eight hub ports in May increased by 7.3% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 1.9% of the previous month, which became the main reason for boosting the import and export growth in May.

 

The continuous decline of sea freight is one of the key factors to help increase the export volume. As of June 3, the Baltic Sea Freight Index (FBX) was 7412.16 points, down 5.59% from last week, basically falling back to the level in July 2021.

 

More importantly, at present, the United States, Europe and other major export destinations in China are experiencing high inflation, and the prices of China's export commodities will also tend to rise. Price factors support exports and promote the export willingness of domestic enterprises.

 

The staff of an international logistics company in Guangzhou told youliaojun that overall, the export situation in May was better than that in April, and the order volume increased by about one time.

 

This change is directly reflected in the port inventory data. For example, pure benzene, according to the statistics of zhuochuang information, the trade volume inventory of East China pure benzene port was 58700 tons on June 1, 2022, a decrease of 12100 tons compared with May 25, a month on month decrease of 17.09% and a year-on-year decrease of 33.67%.

 

Data source: zhuochuang information

At present, in order to stabilize the import and export trade, the State Council Office recently issued the opinions on promoting the stability and quality improvement of foreign trade, which pointed out that we should make every effort to ensure the smooth flow of freight logistics, and effectively and orderly dredge the collection and distribution of sea and air ports.

 

The General Administration of Customs has also issued 10 measures to promote the stability and quality of foreign trade, speed up the customs clearance of goods urgently needed by enterprises, and improve the efficiency of inbound and outbound logistics. Li Kuiwen, director of the statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of customs, said that in the first five months, the number of foreign trade enterprises with import and export performance in China increased by 5% year-on-year.

 

Under the background that the policy of stabilizing foreign trade continues to increase, and the efficiency of port transshipment and customs clearance is improved, Guohai Securities believes that the domestic economic stabilization measures are gradually strengthened, and domestic demand is expected to recover. Under the background of China EU high price difference, China's chemical exports will increase significantly, superimposed on the decline of sea freight prices.

 

Dongfang Jincheng believes that with the further repair of logistics, the delivery of backlog orders in the early stage, and the continued increase in the efforts to stabilize foreign trade policies, the growth rate of export volume in June may continue to be at a high level of double digits.

 

The price difference at home and abroad exceeds 15000 yuan / ton. Which varieties are more conducive to export?

 

According to customs data, China's chemical products with significant export growth in April include adipic acid, toluene, PS, PVC, styrene, soda ash, acetic acid, acrylonitrile, HDPE, LLDPE, PTA, liquid alkali, etc.

 

As of June 5, the products on the price difference list of China EU chemicals include epoxy resin, adipic acid (2307.5 dollars / ton), PA66 (injection molding) (1706.4 dollars / ton), caprolactam (1531.7 dollars / ton), PA6 (injection molding) (1508.7 dollars / ton), TDI (1439.0 dollars / ton), MDI (878 dollars / ton), etc.

 

CITIC Securities believes that at this stage, chemical products with high overseas share and relatively cost sensitive, such as PVC, mdi\tdi and caustic soda, are more competitive in the global market.

Among them, MDI capacity is mainly distributed in Asia, Europe and America, while Asian capacity accounts for 56.6% of the global capacity. Since the beginning of this year, affected by geopolitics, the prices of natural gas and other energy sources in Europe have been high, the prices of aggregated MDI in Europe have been rising all the way, and the price gap between China and Europe has been widening. In May, 2022, the price difference between Europe and the United States of MDI reached US $1016.45/t, which was in the historical 89.9% quantile.

 

Due to the high overseas prices of aggregated MDI, domestic prices also rose. According to the data of zhuochuang information, the price of aggregated MDI has risen for 4 consecutive days. On June 10, the average price of aggregated MDI in the national mainstream market was 18050 yuan / ton.

 

Data source: zhuochuang information

 

Guohai Securities believes that the shortage of energy and high costs may lead to the passive load reduction of local chemical plants, resulting in a large gap in the supply of chemicals, further promoting the sharp rise in the prices of local products in Europe. China's MDI exports to Europe are expected to increase, and domestic MDI production capacity may benefit.

 

In addition, the European market price of chemicals represented by caustic soda has more than doubled that of China, which is also worthy of traders' attention. According to wind data, the current price difference between China and Europe exceeds 1600 yuan / ton.

 

Since this year, the export volume of caustic soda has been increasing. According to the customs data, from January to April 2022, China's total export volume of caustic soda was 942000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 155%. Among them, the export of liquid caustic soda was 768000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 237%, and the export of solid caustic soda was 174000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24%.

 

At present, the units of caustic soda manufacturers have been started stably, there is no inventory pressure for the time being, the maintenance units have also gradually resumed production, and the supply of goods has increased.

 

According to the analysts of youliao.com, the inventory of caustic soda in a short period of time is relatively tight and the export side is good. The enthusiasm of traders to purchase is relatively strong. The short-term caustic soda market is supported by the supply side, and the overall market is optimistic. However, due to the high downstream cost in China, or it is difficult for the price of caustic soda to increase again, it is expected that the price of caustic soda will remain stable or decline in the short term.

 

PVC is also one of the export competitive products. According to wind data statistics, the current price difference between China and Europe for PVC is 5319 yuan / ton.

.

 

 

Since 2021, the export volume of PVC has increased significantly. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, the export volume of PVC in April this year exceeded 300000 tons, a significant increase over the beginning of this year.

 

In general, this year, on the one hand, the price difference has been further widened, on the other hand, the sea freight has declined, and the resumption of domestic production and work will also solve the transportation problem of the supply chain. In the second half of the year, the export of chemicals may have a stronger performance, and traders deserve more attention.

 

(source: youliao chemical industry)